Dry Season Ablation

Dry conditions continue at the summit, likely reflecting dryness on larger and longer time/space scales. Telemetry from the weather station reveals only 3-4 snowfall events since October, with the largest being that in mid-February as previously noted. One minor snowfall of a few centimeters in June served to brighten the surface slightly, enhancing reflection of solar radiation. Nonetheless, the surface lowered by ~5 cm during June and has increased this month.

Just north of the Kilimanjaro region, drought conditions are contributing to severe famine, with over 10 million people in need of humanitarian assistance. Although suffering and displacement are greatest in Somalia, large areas of Ethiopia and Kenya are struggling with food insecurity. A map posted on the Reliefweb site shows the geography of the problem as of mid-July; Kilimanjaro is just south of Kenya's southernmost Emergency Zone on the map. Another graphic from the Famine Early Warning Systems Network provides further details.

[UPDATE 8/8:  NASA's Earth Observatory website has been covering the developing drought since last autumn when rainfall was below normal, and has posted a series of SPOT and other images. There is also an overview discussion on how the tropical Pacific is involved, through La Nina teleconnections.]

Synopsis of 2010-11 wet seasons

By the first of June an extended dry season is typically underway at the summit of Kilimanjaro, one of the most reliable features of a climate with considerable interannual variability. In a regional context, this dry season follows the "long rains" (Masika) which generally encompass much of the 3-month interval March through May. A second, shorter wet season (Vuli) happens in November-December and is somewhat more variable in magnitude and timing.

This year, neither Vuli nor Masika resulted in net accumulation, which will likely result in tremendous ablation on Kilimanjaro's horizontal glacier surfaces during the next 5-6 months. Just how little accumulation was there? Well, between 1 Nov. and 1 June (encompassing both accumulation seasons), a 30 cm net lowering of the Northern Ice Field was very consistent between the two sensors (i.e., -28 and -32 cm). For the same interval of 2009-10, the surface increased by over 60 cm.

During the brief dry interval between Vuli and Masika (usually occurring during January and/or February), ablation also predominated, except for one snowfall event detailed earlier that turned out to be the largest snowfall event of either 2010-11 wet season, and the largest since the previous May.

More humid... but no accumulation for March

During March, there was no snow accumulation on the Northern Ice Field. Telemetry indicates a couple minor snowfalls which weren't recorded by both of the ultrasonic sensors, and then an event of 5-10 cm on 18 and 19 March. Nonetheless, the average net change in surface height amounted to 0.0 cm.

Atmospheric humidity increased during the month however, so accumulation during April and May is more likely. This is the typical pattern, as the long rains (Masika) get underway with passage of the ITCZ over the region (see here, for example). February is rather dry on average, relative to the prior 3 months (NDJ), with the mean vapor pressure increasing 0.2-0.3 hPa from February into March. This year, the mean relative humidity increased by 20 percent; vapor pressure data are not yet available.

new video

Here is a new video produced by Caleb Medders at NBC Learn about glacier recession in general, including some brief thoughts on Kilimanjaro.

Snow!

A 3-day snowy interval was underway at this time last week, bringing over 50 cm of snow on Tuesday to Lava Tower camp at the 4,600m level - and ending an extended dry period. This snow required some climbers to turn back, according to Simon Mtuy at Summit Expeditions, as continuing up the mountain became too difficult. We hope to post photos of the event here shortly.

At the summit, snow began accumulating on Sunday the 13th and continued into the 16th. Telemetry indicates that the event brought somewhere between ~19 and 28cm to the glaciers. Through noon today (local time) the new snow had settled and ablated by 5-10cm, over the past ~5 days.

Hopefully this snowfall brought much-needed rainfall to northern Tanzania. Perhaps the "long rains" are beginning, a bit early?

[UPDATE 3/4:  Below are a couple images as the event was beginning. The first illustrates slight accumulation around the two stations on the first day of snowfall. The lower image is a view of Birafu Camp on the second day. The heaviest snowfall came the next day, which some guides describe as the most they can recall in ~4 years. Both images courtesy of Clavery Tungaraza]

Weather station images

Here is a link to October images of Kilimanjaro's weather stations. Penitentes were present at the time on most glacier surfaces, and these appear in the images. Depending upon their size, penitentes can make glacier travel rather difficult. On Kibo it is unusual to find them greater than about 0.5m in height, but in the dry Andes they develop to heights of several meters. Currently the glacier surface is likely to be much flatter, as ablation continued through what normally are the wet months of November and December.

Little snowfall to the Solstice

The 'short rains' typically bring snowcover to the summit crater by the Solstice, but not this December. One event during the second week resulted in ~10 cm of accumulation on the glacier. This was followed by drier weather, so quite likely the crater is now largely snowfree. Any first-hand observations from the summit during the holidays are welcome!