Media communication: no margin for error

Yesterday, the website Live Science - a "trusted and provocative source for highly accessible science... news" - re-published scrambled elements of a NASA Earth Observatory article about Kilimanjaro glaciers. The result is anything but trustworthy, and provocative only in the sense that the information is confusing and only partially accurate. How did this happen?

The story begins innocently enough. Kimberly Casey from NASA Goddard Space Flight Center collaborated on recent Kilimanjaro fieldwork. We all enjoyed having her along, she adapted well to the altitude and proved physically strong, and at the summit she independently undertook a number of different measurements. Once back at Goddard, she took the initiative to request a new NASA EO-1 image of the mountain, which was acquired with perfect timing (see previous blog entry). With such a cool image, the Earth Observatory office reached out to her about featuring it as an Image of the Day. Great!

The EO article took shape over a couple days last week. Kimberly was provided with considerable information regarding what I, as project PI, felt was most important and valuable about the new satellite image, and this material was passed along to EO editors. Following one opportunity to review a draft, the article then went live:  Kilimanjaro's Shrinking Ice Fields.

To the credit of EO, the image provides a timely update on Kilimanjaro ice retreat. The text is interesting, and more-or-less consistent with published understandings. However, the article missed an opportunity to present evidence for recent and important changes in the pattern of ice extent, which we provided. Instead, the piece closes with an observation that the Northern Ice Field has (finally) divided into 2 parts -- a process underway since sometime between 1976 and 1989, and of no physical significance.

In summary, the concluding emphasis of the EO article is not what us as scientists felt was most noteworthy, but is instead an easy-to-grasp bit of trivia.

In the first 5 days, the article has had over 20,000 views. As a NASA product, the EO website has considerable credibility and deservedly so; EO images provide fascinating, timely glimpses of our dynamic planet.

Enter Live Science, a brand of the TechMediaNetwork. With a monthly visitation of 5.3 million and 250,000 FaceBook likes, one might expect the company to insure that their content is accurate and helpful. Apparently not though, for this new story is chock-full of mistakes and confusion. Indeed, the article mentions glaciers that do not even exist!

Most distressing about such over-simplified blurbs by Popular Media is that they confuse the public, while undermining the credibility of hard-working scientists eager to get their results disseminated accurately. In this case, with their large readership and the iconic status of Kilimanjaro, statements such as "The major cause of the ice loss is a matter of debate" are sure to fan the flames of climate-change denialism and obscure what we've learned about Kilimanjaro's glaciers in the past decade of observations, measurements and modeling. No, the proximal causes of ice loss on Kilimanjaro are not still in dispute; lack of snowfall is the problem!

For scientists, the message here is to insist that journalists get the details and the emphasis of your original story exactly correct. Thereafter, expect any errors, omissions, or ambiguities to propagate.

Anyone wishing to read an overview on Kilimanjaro glaciers can start here, and for a synopsis of a decade's worth of research this document will be essential; within it are all the references needed to better understand the processes and uncertainties.

- Doug Hardy

Glacier images - September 2012

A visual update on the status of Kibo's glaciers is provided in this gallery of recent images. Although mass balance was slightly positive on most horizontal surfaces last year, their steep margins continue retreating.

Two additional GigaPans are also now posted. One provides a perspective on the Kersten Glacier upper margin, which is the view climbers to Uhuru Peak are most familiar with. The other is a wide-angle view of the Reusch Crater. These compliment 2012 GigaPans of the Furtwängler Glacier and Northern Ice Field.

In conjunction with these glacier images, have a look at a valuable new satellite image of the mountain. This was acquired by the Advanced Land Imager (ALI) on the EO-1 mission, just 4 weeks after our fieldwork, at the request of NASA collaborator Kimberly Casey. The timing of this acquisition is quite fortuitous, showing less seasonal snow present than during our fieldwork, yet prior to an early-November snowfall event as the Short Rains got underway.

Previous Earth Observatory stories illustrate patterns of decreasing ice extent, and this latest image reveals that the most dramatic changes are occurring on the south side. Compare, for example, this new image with the 2004 ISS image provided by EO here. Although the Northern Ice Field split has been underway since the 1980s, fragmentation of the Southern Ice Field has been most pronounced in the past year or two. Thanks to Kimberly for arranging acquisition of this latest satellite image!

Seasonal change

Kilimanjaro's extended dry season appears to be coming to a close, based on AWS measurements via telemetry. About 20 cm of horizontal glacier surface ablation occurred between the time of our fieldwork visit at the end of September, terminated by a couple days of snowfall on 11 and 12 October. This event brought ~6 cm of accumulation; after mid-October there was essentially no change in the surface height.

The monthly mean weather for October is available here. As expected going into November, mean air temperature is increasing, along with humidity. A snowfall event during the first few days of November suggests that the short rains will be underway soon.

AWS fieldwork images

A small selection of weather station images have been posted here, illustrating current instrumentation, the atmospheric conditions during fieldwork, and the glacier surface at the end of September. Mass balance for horizontal surfaces of the Northern Ice Field was positive this year (Oct. 2011 - Sept. 2012).

Additional fieldwork images will be posted soon. Credit for above photo:  K. Casey, NASA

Furtwängler Glacier update

Furtwängler Glacier (foreground) and the Northern Ice Field on 27 September 2012, as seen from just west of Uhuru Peak. Although the mass balance on Furtwängler's horizontal surfaces was slightly positive for 2011/12, shrinkage of the glacier continues due to recession of the vertical walls.

Recent recession of the Furtwängler is well documented by annual GPS surveys. These reveal that although continuous, the rate of recession is not constant. For example, with an extended period of snowcover in the crater during the past year, area only decreased by ~3%. However, over the past 5 years, ice extent has decreased ~35%, and since the Feb. 2000 air photos renewed interest in Kilimanjaro's glaciers, 59% of the ice area has disappeared. In conjunction with ~6-7 meters of thinning since 2000, the loss of ice volume is considerably greater!

To view the Furtwängler Glacier in greater detail, two GigaPan panoramas are available. The western portion is here and embedded below, and clicking through will provide a link to another GigaPan of the eastern portion (also available here).

Five days at the summit

We are just back from fieldwork on the summit glaciers, concentrating on the Northern Ice Field. After 4 nights on top for some of us, we accomplished most of our objectives. Thermal imaging was unfortunately postponed yet again, due insufficient time for export control paperwork. Nonetheless, this was a fun group and everyone adapted well to the altitude. Fieldwork did present a few surprises which will be detailed later.

Below are a couple images from the trip. The first illustrates a small portion of the mountain's largest glacier, showing automated weather stations on the upper surface and our camp in the foreground. For late in September, considerable snowcover was present on the glacier and patchy elsewhere within the crater.

The lower image demonstrates why high-elevation observations are so valuable in helping to understand tropical, mid-tropospheric climate. The stratification visible in the image - sharp, spatially uniform, and persistent - is often present in northern Tanzania at a varying altitude. For reference, the distant peak (Mt. Meru) reaches over 4,500m -- and on this day was still not within the free atmosphere! Virtually all climate stations in the region are yet another 2,000 to 3,000m lower in elevation; they simply cannot accurately represent conditions high on the mountain. Two AWS currently operate on the Northern Ice Field, as shown. During this trip a 4-component net radiometer was added to the left-hand station, which will improve the accuracy of our radiation measurements. Also shown (within red circles) are 3 of the NIF ablation stakes, installed to help track gains and losses of mass at the glacier surface.

August ablation - mostly

Ablation of the snow-covered Northern Ice Field during August proceeded more-or-less at the July pace, with a net surface lowering of ~20 cm. One small snowfall event on ~27 August (~3 cm) brightened the surface and retarded ablation for about a week. For the 11 months since our last fieldwork, ~40 cm of accumulation remains, which could result in a positive balance for 2011-12 at the AWS site.

We depart for fieldwork next week. One of our tasks will be to assess the spatial variability of last year's accumulation on the summit glaciers. This promises to be a fun trip, as we will be a group of 6 interesting people - representing 4 different countries - and accompanied by the-one-and-only Simon Mtuy. Discussions in the dining tent will likely continue each night until our teeth are chattering from the cold!