Serious wildfires continue [updated]

This morning's Sentinel-2 image of Kilimanjaro reveals the seriousness of fires burning since Sunday, high on the mountain (bands 12, 11, and 4). Reports suggest the fire was started accidentally along the Marangu Route. Early reports from TANAPA expressed premature optimism that "the fire is already under control" (14 Oct. via @tzparks), yet Minister of Natural Resources and Tourism, Hamisi Kigwangalla, is quoted in the NY Times today:  "the task is harder and bigger than it is thought to be".

On the false color image above, note the Reusch Crater. Snow and ice appear royal blue, with burning areas in yellow-red. This is a very serious, extensive fire! Smoke is visible being blown westward from the fires, burning at an elevation above 3000 m. The dominant vegetation type at this level is giant heather (Erica excelsa), which ecologist Andreas Hemp describes as "an obvious fire sign" which "enhances the fire risk, as even fresh Erica wood burns well". As highlighted in a UNEP posting based on Hemp's work, "nearly 15% of Kilimanjaro’s forest cover was destroyed by fire since 1976 and was replaced by Erica bush which extended its total area by 5km2 (mainly downslope)."

The upper portion of the popular Marangu Route is shown in green, passing Horombo Huts where some fire damage may have occurred. One updated account today (here) quotes Minister Kigwangalla as saying that yesterday's rebound "destroyed the Horombo Tourist Camp, including 12 huts, two toilets, and solar equipment". The mountain's primary descent route past Barafu Camp is also shown, appearing to be threatened by both fire and smoke.

We await first-hand reports from the mountain, and welcome any additional information.

[UPDATE 10/16:  Our friend Timba (Travel Consultant in Moshi) sent a link depicting Carbon Monoxide concentration, via the Earth website. Although the screenshot below does not show the data well, note the value for Kilimanjaro of 13,116 parts per billion by volume (high enough to cause chronic problems with long-term exposure - from CO alone).]

 

What Will Gadd learned on top of Kilimanjaro

Red Bull today released a fantastic new Will Gadd film, shot with a full crew during our pre-COVID February trip. The finished product (45 minutes) is about extreme sport, but also about the science of Kilimanjaro glaciers and climate change; it is well worth watching.

Will was a joy to work with - as eager to learn and share knowledge as he is to climb ice - and clearly articulates the responsibility we all have to reduce our carbon impact. Red Bull deserves major credit for broadening the scope of their productions. And, the stuff is tasty!

Director Tom Beard and the KEO Films crew did a wonderful job of editing, and eagerly accepted ideas to insure an accurate result.

Access the film here:  <https://redbull.com/thelastascent> or here.

 

 

Climate measurements on the Roof of Africa [updated]

Several radiometers used on Kilimanjaro AWS are made by the Dutch company Kipp & Zonen. Coincidentally, they were all transported to Tanzania aboard Royal Dutch Airlines (KLM).

The Kipp & Zonen website has just published an overview on Kilimanjaro, our climate studies, and why it is such a great place for climate research. The article contains several images and discussion of the following plot. Intrigued? Check it out here.

[UPDATE 5/5: A more-detailed version of this overview appears in the April edition of Meteorological Technology International - a very interesting trade publication. A link to just the 4-page article with photos is available here.]

(This is blog post #100!)

New aerial images

During the Wings of Kilimanjaro (WoK) expedition in early February, a helicopter flew to the summit with supplies for the group. The pilot was Ben Simpson of Tropic Air, a company based at the foot of Mt. Kenya and experienced in carrying out rescues there. Tropic Air uses the French-made Eurocopter AS 350 B3, from which WoK videographer Anika Craney got some great footage. A 12.5-minute clip of the flight is posted on the WoK FaceBook page, available here.

The following captures are from Anika's video, posted here to provide an update on recession of the glaciers; several of the perspectives she obtained are quite unique.

Below is the less-commonly seen half of the Northern Ice Field, with the eastern edge at left. The crater is behind the upper ice as seen here. Despite extensive snowcover (for early February) the split between the two halves is clearly visible; this did not exist and/or was not known prior to ~1989.

At the bottom edge of the image below is Stella Point. Trails to both the summit and crater camp are visible. The eastern end of the Rebmann Glacier is in the foreground. The apparent "hole" was recently observed on satellite imagery, and may have developed due to anomalous geothermal heat flux. Alternatively, it may have begun as a supraglacial pond which enhanced shortwave radiation receipt.

Fragments of the Southern Ice Field are seen in the next image. Beginning on the right-hand side, the Rebmann Glacier used to extend downslope but is primarily confined to the crater rim these days. Although partially obscured by cloud, this view provides a context for the image above. The narrow Decken Glacier becomes thinner each year, and may soon be cut off from the ice above. The largest ice body remaining is the Kersten Glacier, which is also seen in the fourth image. Within the past couple years the Kersten has become detached both from ice above and from the Decken Glacier to the right. Lastly, the Heim Glacier is the small sun-lit body of ice beyond the lower Kersten. As recently as 10 years ago the upper portion of this glacier began not far below the crater rim.  

Below is detail of the view above, showing how the Kersten Glacier has fragmented from the Decken, and into an upper and lower portion. Uhuru Peak is the high point behind the upper section and obscured by cloud in this view.

Many thanks to WoK and Anika for posting this video!

Media communication: no margin for error

Yesterday, the website Live Science - a "trusted and provocative source for highly accessible science... news" - re-published scrambled elements of a NASA Earth Observatory article about Kilimanjaro glaciers. The result is anything but trustworthy, and provocative only in the sense that the information is confusing and only partially accurate. How did this happen?

The story begins innocently enough. Kimberly Casey from NASA Goddard Space Flight Center collaborated on recent Kilimanjaro fieldwork. We all enjoyed having her along, she adapted well to the altitude and proved physically strong, and at the summit she independently undertook a number of different measurements. Once back at Goddard, she took the initiative to request a new NASA EO-1 image of the mountain, which was acquired with perfect timing (see previous blog entry). With such a cool image, the Earth Observatory office reached out to her about featuring it as an Image of the Day. Great!

The EO article took shape over a couple days last week. Kimberly was provided with considerable information regarding what I, as project PI, felt was most important and valuable about the new satellite image, and this material was passed along to EO editors. Following one opportunity to review a draft, the article then went live:  Kilimanjaro's Shrinking Ice Fields.

To the credit of EO, the image provides a timely update on Kilimanjaro ice retreat. The text is interesting, and more-or-less consistent with published understandings. However, the article missed an opportunity to present evidence for recent and important changes in the pattern of ice extent, which we provided. Instead, the piece closes with an observation that the Northern Ice Field has (finally) divided into 2 parts -- a process underway since sometime between 1976 and 1989, and of no physical significance.

In summary, the concluding emphasis of the EO article is not what us as scientists felt was most noteworthy, but is instead an easy-to-grasp bit of trivia.

In the first 5 days, the article has had over 20,000 views. As a NASA product, the EO website has considerable credibility and deservedly so; EO images provide fascinating, timely glimpses of our dynamic planet.

Enter Live Science, a brand of the TechMediaNetwork. With a monthly visitation of 5.3 million and 250,000 FaceBook likes, one might expect the company to insure that their content is accurate and helpful. Apparently not though, for this new story is chock-full of mistakes and confusion. Indeed, the article mentions glaciers that do not even exist!

Most distressing about such over-simplified blurbs by Popular Media is that they confuse the public, while undermining the credibility of hard-working scientists eager to get their results disseminated accurately. In this case, with their large readership and the iconic status of Kilimanjaro, statements such as "The major cause of the ice loss is a matter of debate" are sure to fan the flames of climate-change denialism and obscure what we've learned about Kilimanjaro's glaciers in the past decade of observations, measurements and modeling. No, the proximal causes of ice loss on Kilimanjaro are not still in dispute; lack of snowfall is the problem!

For scientists, the message here is to insist that journalists get the details and the emphasis of your original story exactly correct. Thereafter, expect any errors, omissions, or ambiguities to propagate.

Anyone wishing to read an overview on Kilimanjaro glaciers can start here, and for a synopsis of a decade's worth of research this document will be essential; within it are all the references needed to better understand the processes and uncertainties.

- Doug Hardy