Friday, March 6, 2015

Tropical Cyclone 15S [updated]

Tropical Cyclone 15S is currently in the Mozambique Channel, as shown by the image above from NASA's Terra satellite processed by the NASA Goddard MODIS Rapid Response Team. The image was acquired at 10:40 East Africa Time on March 6th.

Will the circulation associated with 15S influence Kilimanjaro snowfall? We will be keeping an eye on this, for the circulation around prior cyclones seems to have been associated with precipitation at this time of year - as moisture is delivered from the Congo Basin. Here is a previous discussion, initiated by conversations with Timba at Ahsante Tours & Safaris.

Forecasters at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center anticipate 15S wind speeds to increase over the next few days. The duration that the cyclone remains over warm water may determine the impact on Kilimanjaro. We will provide an update next week!

 [UPDATE 3/11:  No apparent influence this time. Mid-tropospheric circulation to the north (i.e., Kilimanjaro) seems not to have been substantially influenced by 15S, and westerly flow never developed. We'll keep an eye on future cyclones this season.]

No comments:

Post a Comment